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Monday, December 28, 2020

UK's official statisticians had concerns over covid-19 survey bias | Coronavirus - New Scientist News

Adam Vaughan, chief reporter at New Scientist magazine notes, The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) privately discussed concerns about the risk of its flagship covid-19 infection survey offering a biased picture of the country’s epidemic, according to documents from between May and July.

The ONS survey tracks the prevalence of covid-19 in parts of the UK
Photo: James Veysey/Shutterstock

The survey is considered one of the best insights into the prevalence of the disease, as it samples random households in the UK’s four nations. However, New Scientist has previously reported that the response rate has fallen as the survey has expanded.

Of the households in England invited to take part, the response rate dropped from 51 per cent in April to 5 per cent in October, raising fears that if only a certain group of people were completing the survey, it may become less representative of covid-19’s real prevalence in the community. In October, the ONS told New Scientist that the survey was weighted and continued to offer reliable estimates of the virus’s spread...

Contacted by New Scientist about the documents, the ONS said only some initial work was undertaken because the risks didn’t materialise, as shown by an October target of 150,000 unique fortnightly tests being reached early. After reaching a low of 5 per cent in October, the response rate has climbed in England to 12 per cent by 11 December.

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Source: New Scientist News