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Monday, July 08, 2019

Simpson's Paradox, Statistics can be Creative | Columns - Canada Free Press

My intent here is not to teach statistics, but rather to alert readers that statistics are being misused to offer evidence for desired results by the liberal-marxist establishment which does not recognize the existence of objective facts by Dr. Alexander Nussbaum, PhD in Experimental Psychology, Statistician, Psychology Professor

Both in 1995 and 1996, David Justice, then of the Atlanta Braves, had a higher batting average than Yankee Derek Jeter. So it stands to reason that if the at bats and hits for the two season are combined, Justice would have a higher overall batting average than Jeter. Would you not agree? But if you did, you would be wrong!

This example, discovered by Ken Ross, a mathematics professor, who has written on sabermetrics, has become a common illustration of Simpson’s paradox.

In this case the seeming paradox is a fluke resulting from the nature of percentages. Note that most of Jeter’s at bats came from the year he hit .314 and most of Justice’s at bats came from the year he hit .253. Here there is no confounding third variable to the hit- at bat relationship. It makes perfect sense to combine results to give the more accurate result as to these ballplayers’ batting averages. Jeter batted .310 lifetime, and Justice batted .279 lifetime.

Non-statisticians should find the above result puzzling. Statisticians know that this is simply Simpson’s paradox, also and perhaps more properly called Simpson’s reversal. Far from being a paradox, Simpson’s reversal is a well understood attribute of correlation not proving causation, and familiar to every statistician...