Posts
 |
| Photo: Christina Animashaun/Vox |
Health officials and citizens in the United States and Europe are desperately trying to slow the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak and are pleading with each other to practice social distancing and good hygiene.
Canceling events and family gatherings, closing schools,
and reducing visits to public spaces and businesses are simple,
powerful, and effective tactics to control disease transmission
alongside testing to identify sick patients and isolate them from others.
And since the novel coronavirus is already spreading locally in several communities, epidemiologists say measures to limit the spread of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, are most effective right now in the early stage of the outbreak, when few people are infected and the most lives can be saved...
The math behind the outbreak explains why.
Right now, many places seeing Covid-19 transmission are following an exponential growth trajectory. That is, the rate of the spread of the infection is proportional to the number of people infected. Each infected person is expected to infect a certain number of people — around 2.5 right now — who each in turn go on to infect 2.5 more, and on and on, unless drastic measures are taken to reduce social contact and isolate the infected from others.
Think about counting doubles — 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on. How many times would you have to double to get to more than 1 million? 20. How many doubles to get to more than 16 million? 24.
Right now, many places seeing Covid-19 transmission are following an exponential growth trajectory. That is, the rate of the spread of the infection is proportional to the number of people infected. Each infected person is expected to infect a certain number of people — around 2.5 right now — who each in turn go on to infect 2.5 more, and on and on, unless drastic measures are taken to reduce social contact and isolate the infected from others.
Think about counting doubles — 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on. How many times would you have to double to get to more than 1 million? 20. How many doubles to get to more than 16 million? 24.
So that’s why Covid-19 appears to spread very slowly, and then all at once...
Taking drastic measures to limit the transmission rate of Covid-19, like
closing schools, canceling public events, and sending people home from
work, may seem like an overreaction when few people in a city or state
are infected. However, early in the outbreak is exactly when such
measures are most effective.
Source: Vox.com
