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What does that graph mean? University statistician on understanding COVID-19 numbers
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| Photo: Jeffrey Rosenthal |
“There are a lot of numbers out there and it can be hard to follow and track them,” says Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor in the department of statistical sciences in the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Arts & Science.
“Every different way of visualizing data is going to give a somewhat different impression. So you have to understand what they mean.”
Arts & Science writer Chris Sasaki recently asked Rosenthal what advice he’d give to Canadians trying to make sense of the numbers behind the pandemic. All figures and trends current as of March 31.
Most of the graphs we see showing the total number of cases or deaths are linear graphs, but there are also logarithmic graphs. What’s the difference between the two and what do they tell us about the pandemic?...
What else should Canadians be mindful of as we track the numbers?
When you look at total numbers, you should look at the numbers as a percentage of the population or per capita. For example, if we compare Canada to the U.S., we might expect the U.S. to have about 10 times the number of cases because they have about 10 times the population. In fact, they have more than 20 times as many cases as us right now. So, it’s not simply that they have more cases because they have more people – they have twice the cases per capita.
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Source: Mirage News
