|Photo: Stephen Hansen|
“Basically, I am interested in modeling the time to occurrence of certain events,” she explained. Agustin studies and teaches statistical modeling called “goodness-of-fit,” a way to predict certain kinds of events, like birth and life expectancy. “For example, we can statistically examine a repairable component so we can understand when and how many times it will fail. Or, in the case of a person, we can know the probably of recurrence of a disease. My interest is in finding a statistical model that makes use of all available information.”
She said that her work deals very much with predictions – and the ability to make good ones. The goodness-of-fit test can help determine whether a model is feasible and whether or not it makes good predictions. For example, the kind of statistical model Agustin develops can tell an engineering firm how long it can expect a piece of machinery to work, which parts are likely to wear out first and how many times it can be repaired before it is better to buy a new one. The most obvious examples of Agustin’s research impact insurance companies and pension firms, which need to know how long we are expected to live.
|Photo: Zenia Agustin|
Source: The Edwardsville Intelligence